Expected Value Calculator

What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the average outcome you can expect over the long run from a particular bet or investment. In sports betting, it's calculated using the odds offered by the bookmaker and your estimated probability of the event occurring.

A positive EV (EV > 0) indicates a potentially profitable bet over time, while a negative EV (EV < 0) suggests that the bet is likely to lose money in the long run. Professional bettors focus on consistently finding positive EV bets.

This calculator helps you determine whether a bet offers value by comparing the bookmaker's implied probability (derived from the odds) with your own estimated probability of the outcome.

Calculate the expected value of a bet based on the odds and your estimated probability.

Stake Amount

Odds Format

Decimal Fractional American

Bookmaker Odds

Enter the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Your Estimated Probability (%)

Enter your estimated probability of the outcome occurring (between 0% and 100%).

Expected Value Results

Expected Value (EV)

$12.50

For every $100 bet, you can expect to profit $12.50 over the long run.

Expected ROI

12.50%

Return on investment over the long run.

Probability Comparison

Bookmaker Implied Probability

55.56%

Your Estimated Probability

60.00%

Edge

4.44%

Potential Outcomes

If Bet Wins (60.00% chance)

$80.00 profit

If Bet Loses (40.00% chance)

-$100.00 loss

Expected Value Tips

Focus on positive EV bets - Professional bettors consistently seek out bets with positive expected value.
Be accurate with probabilities - The key to successful EV betting is having accurate probability estimates.
Use a bankroll management strategy - Even with positive EV bets, appropriate bankroll management is essential for long-term success.
Consider the variance - Some bets may have positive EV but high variance, which means more significant bankroll swings.
Shop for the best odds - Getting the best available odds directly improves your expected value.
Track your results - Keep records of your bets to see if your actual results align with your expected value calculations.

Expected Value Calculator

What is Expected Value?